Priced Out: Californians Moving Out Find Big Housing Cost Savings and Easier Path to Homeownership
Californians leaving the state often cut monthly housing bills by hundreds and gain a much higher likelihood of owning a home, a California Policy Lab study shows, highlighting strong financial incentives behind out‑migration amid the affordability crisis.
Key takeaways
- Average monthly housing cost savings for Californians who relocate out of state: $672.
- Average monthly housing costs in California neighborhoods left by movers: $2,376; in their new communities: $1,705.
- Renters who moved out of California saw rents fall by about 30% (~$631 a month); median home prices in destination neighborhoods were about $396,000 lower (48% less), and homeownership rates rose from 53% to 60%.
- Top net destinations for Californians: Nevada (81 per 10,000), Idaho (64), Oregon (37), Arizona (36); smaller net gains to Texas (11), Tennessee (13) and Florida (4).
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How the study tracked moves and costs
The California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley analyzed data that follows the same households from 2016 through 2025. Researchers compared total monthly housing costs in a household’s former California neighborhood with costs in the place they moved to. The measure includes mortgage or rent payments, utilities, property taxes and insurance, giving a more comprehensive picture than rent or sale price alone. Additional reporting and context appear in Realtor.com coverage.
Big differences in monthly bills
On average, people leaving California saw monthly housing costs fall from $2,376 to $1,705 — a $672 monthly savings. Renters faced the steepest drops; rents fell roughly 30%, or about $631 a month after relocation. Homeowners also benefited: median home values in destination neighborhoods were about $396,000 lower, nearly half the price of homes in the California areas they left. These price gaps help explain why moving out of state often makes homeownership achievable sooner. (source)
Homeownership gains after leaving California
“Movers tend to choose much more affordable locations,” said Evan White, the study’s lead author, noting lower home values often outweigh slightly lower incomes.
The report finds a striking rise in homeownership among people who left the state: after seven years, people who moved away were 48% more likely to own a home than they had been in California — an 11 percentage‑point increase. By contrast, people who moved into California gained a 27% higher likelihood of owning after seven years (about a 6 percentage‑point increase). (study)
Comparisons with internal moves and newcomers to California
Not all moves ease affordability. Californians who moved within the state saw a small rise in monthly housing costs — from $2,263 to $2,277 in their new California communities. People who moved to California from other states faced large cost increases: average monthly housing costs climbed from $1,754 at their prior out‑of‑state home to $2,418 after moving into California. Those moving in endured higher monthly bills and saw a smaller jump in homeownership rates compared with those leaving the state. (analysis)
Where Californians are going
The study maps California migration patterns over the decade. Nevada was the top net recipient, with 81 more people per 10,000 arriving from California each year between 2016 and 2025. Idaho (64), Oregon (37) and Arizona (36) followed. Some major Sun Belt states saw smaller net gains: Texas (11 per 10,000), Tennessee (13) and Florida (4). The pattern shows a strong pull toward nearby, lower‑cost Western states where housing is more affordable and commute or cultural ties remain manageable. (full mapping)
Local numbers: Sacramento as an example
The report highlights county‑level shifts. In Sacramento County, about 269,600 people left the state from 2016 to 2025 while 198,500 moved in, for a net loss of 71,100 residents. These county‑level flows show how migration can reshape labor pools, housing demand and tax bases across California. (source presentation)
Policy context and possible fixes
Researchers and housing experts say there is no quick fix to affordability. The California Policy Lab points to supply‑side changes as part of the solution: building more homes faster and cheaper, changing building codes and fees, and creating funding streams to support new housing. Bipartisan interest in easing costs has emerged at state and federal levels, but experts warn policy changes take years to affect housing costs on the ground. (public presentation)
Why people move despite income trade-offs
The report notes that although incomes in destination neighborhoods tend to be slightly lower, the fall in housing costs is large enough to improve living standards. Lower monthly housing bills free up money for savings, child care, debt payments and other needs. For many Californians, moving can be a strategy to regain economic footing and reach homeownership sooner. (reporting)
What the numbers mean for San Diego and the region
Economic impact: If San Diego continues to lose residents to lower‑cost states, the city could face changes in consumer demand and tax revenues. Fewer residents paying higher California housing costs could reduce local spending on services that rely on high consumer demand. Conversely, out‑migration can ease pressure on local housing markets, potentially slowing price growth and making homes slightly more accessible for remaining residents. (analysis)
Housing market effects: San Diegans looking to buy may see a modest easing of competition if higher‑income households leave. But the study shows that people moving within California often face slightly higher costs, suggesting intra‑state demand could keep pressure on certain neighborhoods. Local builders and planners could use this window to add more housing supply. (local perspective)
Political consequences: Migration changes voter rolls and the makeup of local constituencies. San Diego’s policymakers may see shifts in priorities as households with different income levels and housing needs move in or out, influencing debates around zoning, affordable housing funding and infrastructure investments. (discussion)
Social effects: Families and workers leaving for cheaper states may reshape neighborhood demographics and school enrollment. As some residents find homeownership elsewhere, San Diego might see a concentration of renters, older homeowners, or wealthier households able to afford local prices. That shift affects schools, transit use and social services demand. (study)
Cultural relevance and daily life: San Diego’s climate, jobs and amenities remain a draw, but when monthly housing costs are hundreds of dollars higher than in nearby states, everyday choices change: commuting patterns, childcare arrangements and where young adults raise families. For residents weighing whether to stay, Priced Out shows that moving can quickly alter household finances. (more)
Practical applications: City leaders in San Diego can use these findings to shape local policy: speed permitting for infill and accessory dwelling units, reduce fees that add to development costs, and target funds to preserve affordable units — all aimed at keeping more households in the city or easing paths to homeownership. (policy session)
Reporting and sources
This article is based on the California Policy Lab analysis, “Priced Out: Relocation Amidst California’s Affordability Crisis”, reporting from Fox Business and Realtor.com, and a public presentation by the California Policy Lab (video).
