NOAA Forecasts Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NOAA’s forecast and reasoning

NOAA released its official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Thursday, saying forecasters expect a below-average season largely because of the likely development of El Niño. The agency states a 70% probability that actual seasonal totals will fall within the provided ranges for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes, and assigns a 55% chance that the season will be below normal.

Forecasters note the Atlantic Basin has been in a high-activity era since 1995 due to a mix of natural variability and long-term climate trends. This year, however, NOAA officials say the El Niño signal is likely to outweigh some favorable conditions and reduce tropical cyclone formation across the Atlantic basin.

Important: A quieter seasonal total does not eliminate the risk of dangerous landfalls — major hurricanes can occur in below-average seasons and still cause severe damage where they make landfall.

How El Niño influences Atlantic hurricanes

El Niño is a phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), driven by warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. See NOAA’s background on ENSO at NOAA ENSO background and impacts and explanatory materials at NOAA Niño/Niña facts.

During El Niño, stronger upper-level winds across the tropical Atlantic typically increase vertical wind shear, which disrupts and weakens developing storms and suppresses overall Atlantic hurricane activity. Conversely, El Niño conditions usually enhance tropical cyclone activity in the Eastern Pacific. NOAA’s outlook shows ~98% chance El Niño conditions will persist through much of the hurricane season — a central reason for the below-normal projection despite above-average Atlantic ocean temperatures.

Timing matters: If El Niño strengthens early — or into a strong or “Super El Niño” — its suppressing effects could impact a larger portion of the season. A later onset would likely have a smaller influence.

Comparison with other forecasts

NOAA’s outlook broadly aligns with Colorado State University’s April forecast, though with slightly different counts. CSU projected 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes — the fewest storms CSU has forecast since 2019 — and also identified a strong El Niño as a central factor. NOAA’s ranges overlap CSU’s counts but are slightly more conservative on the high end for named storms.

Both institutions emphasize forecast uncertainty: seasonal outlooks are probabilistic and do not indicate where storms will make landfall. A single unexpected landfalling hurricane can dominate impacts regardless of the seasonal total.

Climatological timing and caveats

Climatology shows the first named storm in the Atlantic typically forms around June 20, while the first hurricane usually appears near August 11. These are averages; storms sometimes form earlier or later in a season. NOAA’s hurricane outlook also notes El Niño episodes commonly last 9–12 months but can vary in timing and intensity.

NOAA cautioned that the seasonal outlook is not a substitute for up-to-date, storm-specific forecasts and warnings once tropical systems form. For official guidance and watches/warnings, rely on the National Weather Service overview of El Niño/La Niña impacts and local NWS offices.

What this means for emergency planning

NOAA and the National Weather Service urge communities and individuals to prepare every hurricane season, regardless of outlooks. Recommended actions include:

• Revise evacuation plans and share routes with household members.
• Check insurance policies, including flood coverage where applicable.
• Secure property and assemble an emergency kit with multi-day supplies.
• Monitor official advisories and act on warnings from local emergency managers and the NWS.

Forecasters stress that lower-than-average seasonal totals reduce the probability of storms overall but do not eliminate the risk of a damaging landfall. Preparedness should remain a priority.

Implications for San Diego, California

San Diego is not directly threatened by Atlantic hurricanes, but NOAA’s forecast and the likely El Niño have local implications for Southern California and San Diego. Key local impacts to plan for include:

• Winter rainfall and flood risk: El Niño typically brings wetter-than-average winters to Southern California, increasing the risk of heavy rains, urban flooding and debris flows, particularly in burn-scar areas. See NOAA ENSO background and impacts for regional guidance.
• Coastal impacts and surf: Increased Eastern Pacific storm activity can drive larger swells and higher surf, raising erosion risk for San Diego beaches and coastal infrastructure.
• Supply chains and fuel prices: Disruptions to shipping or refineries in the Gulf of Mexico or East Coast from Atlantic storms — even in a below-normal season — can ripple to national fuel supplies and shipping schedules, potentially affecting San Diego.
• Emergency resources and mutual aid: A below-normal Atlantic season may free some national resources, but local agencies still should prepare for El Niño-related winter hazards and coordinate mutual aid plans.
• Public messaging: Emphasize year-round readiness: update emergency kits, plan evacuation routes for floods or landslides, and review insurance for flood and storm damage.

Local officials and water managers can use NOAA’s ENSO guidance to refine seasonal resource planning; NOAA’s materials at NOAA ENSO background and impacts and NOAA Niño/Niña facts are recommended references.

Resources and further reading

• NOAA 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook
• NOAA ENSO background and impacts (climate.gov)
• NOAA Niño/Niña facts (oceanservice.noaa.gov)
• National Weather Service overview of El Niño/La Niña impacts
• Media coverage and CSU outlook summary

Bottom line: Prepare, watch official advisories, and stay informed. Seasonal forecasts set expectations, but local responses should be driven by immediate advisories from the National Weather Service and local emergency management agencies.